Don't look now, but Cisco Systems Inc. has emerged as the runaway leader in the intrusion prevention systems (IPS) market segment.

That's according to market watcher Infonetics Research, which describes Cisco's position in an otherwise contentious IPS segment as all but unassailable.

-- advertisement (article continued below) --

What a difference 24 months or so can make.

"Cisco is without a doubt the leader in the intrusion prevention system market. In a very short time, Cisco went from being severely underestimated as an IPS player to leading IPS revenue share and brand awareness," said Infonetics principal analyst Jeff Wilson, in a statement.

Going forward, Wilson likes Cisco's chances to maintain its lead.

While the 3Com acquisition will help Cisco partner-come-rival Hewlett-Packard Co. (HP) shore up its own IPS bona-fides (3Com's TippingPoint division gave it creditable IPS expertise), Cisco's lead seems relatively secure.

"McAfee, IBM ISS, Sourcefire, and TippingPoint...have the best chance of competing head-to-head with Cisco for pure IPS sales over the next two years, but we expect Cisco to maintain the lead in market share and brand awareness as long they remain interested in offering pure IPS solutions," he observed.

Right now, Cisco and its competitors are wrangling over a relatively small market: Infonetics estimates IPS-related revenues at $800 billion last year.

That tally should increase by 50 percent over the next four years. By 2014, then, IPS sales should generate $1.2 billion in revenues.

That being said, Cisco shouldn't take its dominance for granted. For one thing, Infonetics stresses, buyers "are not sure whose IPS products they will buy in the future, which means there is still opportunity for challengers in the market."

All the same, Cisco enjoys a huge brand recognition advantage: when Infonetics asked buyers to list their top three IPS vendors, 38 percent named Cisco.

Buyers weren't simply shown a list of vendors and asked to rank them, either, according to Infonetics. They were instead asked to list their top three IPS candidates, without prompting.
--By Stephen Swoyer